The Trump administration's emphasis on "America First" would significantly affect US-China trade and investment, which in turn would affect both countries' economic performance and global roles (but might not change balance of payments so important to President Trump). The bilateral exchange rate as a rebalancing mechanism would thus remain a focus of China-US negotiations if not conflict. The US government's proposed tax overhaul, plans for infrastructure investment and financial deregulation, and the corresponding adjustment of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy will also have spillover effects on China and the world economy. In this joint report, scholars from the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) and the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) identify ongoing areas of common economic interest for Chinese and American governments, practical ways that the two governments might work together on economic issues, and what is at risk if the Trump administration attacks the rules-based international economic system—which the United States created and which has been essential to both US and Chinese prosperity for decades.
Contents:
I. Overview
1. Creating a Basis for China-US Economic Cooperation under the New US Administration
Adam S. Posen and Jiming Ha
II. Impact of Policy Changes
2. Prospects for Changes in US Fiscal Policy and Their Effects on the US Economy
Karen Dynan
3. What Is the Potential Growth Rate of the US Economy, and How Might Policy Affect It?
Jason Furman
4. Impact of Trump Administration’s Proposed Policies on the United States and China
Jiming Ha
III. Exchange Rates and Finance
5. Exchange Rates and the International Monetary System: Not a Scapegoat
Guan Tao, Lu Zhengwei, and Guo Jiayi
6. A Stability-Oriented Exchange Rate Policy for China
Joseph E. Gagnon
7. The United States at a Crossroads: G-20 Cooperation and the International Financial Architecture
Nathan Sheets
8. Thoughts on Overindebtedness from a European Perspective
Nicolas Ve?ron and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
IV. Trade and Investment
9. US-China Trade Disputes and the World Trade Organization
Chad P. Bown
10. The Importance of Doing Our BIT: The Economic Potential of a US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty
Lee Branstetter, Britta Glennon, and J. Bradford Jensen
11. China-US Bilateral Investment
Guo Kai, Wang Bijun, and Yang Yuanchen
12. Foreign Direct Investment in China
Zixuan Huang
13. State Resurgence in China
Nicholas Lardy
14. The Risks and Costs of Trade Wars
Marc Noland
15. Asia-Pacific Regionalism after the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Jeffrey J. Schott and Zhiyao Lu
16. Trade Cooperation and Conflicts between the United States and China: Risks and Realities
Fan Zhai
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