Abstract: Currently, China faces a problem of insufficient domestic demand, making the sustainability of external demand particularly important. Since bottoming out in August 2023, China’s export growth has shown a consistent upward trend. After excluding price fluctuations, the actual volume of exports has been steadily increasing, outperforming pre-pandemic levels. Over the past two years, the share of China’s exports to the U.S. and Europe has significantly declined, while exports to ASEAN has risen to the first place, with ASEAN becoming a new growth point for exports. Some argue that China’s exports are being rerouted to the U.S. through ASEAN, but data on ASEAN’s exports and U.S. imports do not support this claim. ASEAN is currently in a phase of accelerated industrialization and consumption upgrading, leading to rising demand for high-end manufacturing products. Since ASEAN’s high-end manufacturing sector is relatively weak, its reliance on related Chinese products remains high. Moreover, the Middle East also shows a strong dependence on China’s high-end manufacturing. China needs to further strengthen its trade relations with these regions to lay the groundwork for future export growth.
Currently, the biggest challenge facing China’s economy is insufficient domestic demand. At the same time, there is growing concern in the market about whether external demand can sustain its growth. This article aims to explore why China’s export growth has been so strong.
